Yet ingenious users, seizing on recent gains in the PC’s raw processing muscle, are building money-saving strategies around the PC. Automaker Saturn, for example, is replacing costly custom factory applications on its Digital VAX machines with cheaper PC versions. The General Motors unit is moving all data between its programmable logic controllers on the manufacturing line and a Microsoft SQJ Server database, and making it accessible in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. "We don’t need to program reports," says Bruce Bemisderfer, a Saturn manager of strategic planning and software development.  

The move also has freed Saturn from using highly vertical, manufacturing-oriented databases that need trained experts to keep them running. These database gurus are expensive to hire and difficult to replace. By contrast, the standard applications can be learned by any average user willing to attend a training session or read a software manual. In fact, Bemiderfer likes to say the new approach "lets Microsoft train the users." 

Yet even with these high costs, businesses and consumers continue buying tens of millions of PCs. Market watchers expect worldwide PC sales will climb 19% this year. Though that marks a drop from last year’s 23% rate. It’s still a level envied by most industries. 

More specifically, Computer Intelligence predicts that total shipments of new PCs in the U.S. will reach 37 million units in 1998, more than half again the 24 million units shipped last year. And Dataquest Inc., a market research firm in San Jose, Calif., predicts that Microsoft will ship nearly 73 million copies of its Windows 95 operating system for PCs worldwide in the year 2000, up from about 63 million copies this year. So much for the sales slump proclaimed by Network Computer proponents. 

Users are constantly redefining what "state of the art" means for the PC. For some, it’s as simple as needing a machine that runs even when it’s not connected to a network. "We’re not going to want to dial in from an airplane for $5 a minute," says Walter Taucher, president of Corporate computer Inc., a systems integrator in Seattle. 

For others, it’s a lot more. [Waiter.Com], a [San Jose], Calif., startup, uses portable PCs to market its service. Restaurants in Northern California that use the service let their customers place orders over the Internet. The orders go to [Waiter.Com]’s server, which then faxes the order to the restaurant. 

The company, founded last year by two Stanford Business School graduates, found the level of networking sophistication among potential customers varied greatly. So Michael Adelberg, the company’s VP and co-founder, takes his Zenith Data Systems Z-Noteflex 486 DX50 notebook PC—equipped with a wireless modem—on sales calls to restaurant owners. Often, he programs the menu and fax number on his PC, places a mock order, then transmits it to the restaurant’s fax. "My notebook is a very powerful selling tool," Adelberg says. "They can see how quick and easy it is to place an order." 

Oregon State University’s College of Business in Corvallis plans to use PCs this summer to let students log onto its Web site. There, they’ll be able to register for classes, take tests, pick up grades, share course materials and class notes, even discuss courses with classmates. "We’re looking to deliver our course curriculum across any site in the state," says Greg Scott, the school’s information services manager. "but it really has no boundary, so it could be anywhere." Fueling the move: Half of Oregon State’s first-year business students already own PCs. Scott expects the figure to hit 80% in the next few years. 

Of course, the exciting future of the PC doesn’t preclude an equally exciting future for the Network computer. After all, Net-surfing devices just might catch on. 

What would it take for the NC to obliterate the PC? Says Microsoft’s Ballmer: "If the leaders screw up, they won’t be leaders tomorrow."